After an extremely surprising Confederations Cup in South Africa, it's come down to this - David vs. Goliath, Round 2, aka USA vs. Brazil. The USA's shocking turn-around and even more unexpected upset victory over Spain in the Semi-finals has everyone wondering if this up-and-coming team has one more shock result in them. Here are seven key factors as I see it, for this Final game:
1. USA could benefit more from their tough experience recently playing Brazil, which should help their familiarity with Brazil's current players, style, and tactics.
2. The USA not only lost to Brazil already, 3-0, but looked fairly anemic in the process. Expect US players to use that performance as motivation for this rematch.
3. The US match versus Spain has built up their confidence - even if that confidence may be over-blown (according to some), it's still confidence and the power of positive thinking and personal faith can be profoundly affective in athletic events.
4. The weather may just play a factor. It's widely recognized that Brazilians aren't terribly fond of playing in cooler weather. It won't be freezing, necessarily, by game time but the match will be played at least 20-25 degrees cooler than the Brazilian players would probably prefer. In reality, this will likely have the least impact of these 7 factors, but it bears mentioning anyway.
5. The US MNT will be without the services of Michael Bradley who has been a strong midfield force for them during this tournament and in general for the US style of play. Can Benny Feilhaber (Michael Bradley's expected replacement) bring his defense up a notch to match his offensive abilities and mindset?
6. The US Men's National team, again, has everything to play for and nothing to lose. Brazil, on the other hand, is fully expected to win the match. Playing loose and relaxed can only be a psychological boost for the USA.
7. Expect this match to hinge on which team can score first. Brazil becomes ten times more dangerous with a goal under their belt. The US defense, which flummoxed Spain, is still porous and sloppy at times. If the US has to push forward in search of an equalizing goal, it'll inevitably lead to far more openings than the Yanks can afford, leaving Brazil with delicious openings that they're sure to exploit. However, if the US can get a shock goal somewhat early, it could rattle Brazil and boost the US confidence levels even higher. Furthermore, the same thing previously said about an early Brazil goal would be true for the USA , which has a strong counter-attacking play style. If Brazil has to push harder to equalize from an early US goal, it could lead to more opportunities for the US team to grow their potential early lead.
Despite a number of interesting psychological factors at work for this Finals match-up, it's hard for any soccer journalist to bet against Brazil, in general, regardless of the factors involved. I suspect this will be end up as a hard-fought Brazil victory, 2-1, all things considered.
2 comments:
The USA can and will win. 2-1. I am calling it. Great analysis.
Thanks for the kind words, S.G. :)
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